Israel election exit polls point to hung Knesset as turnout hits 50-year high
Record voter participation has produced no clear winner, leaving Arab parties and the 3.25% threshold to shape who forms Israel's next government.
Israel's first general election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack has ended in deadlock, according to exit polls from Channels 11, 12 and 13. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp nor the opposition is projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. These are projections, not final counts, and seat tallies can shift as real ballots are counted.
Think of it as a hung Lok Sabha in miniature. The opposition bloc of Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats is tipped to win 50 to 53 seats. Netanyahu's alliance is forecast at about 50. Likud is expected to stay the largest single party with 24 to 25 seats, just ahead of former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar at 21 to 23.
The arithmetic hands unusual leverage to the Arab parties. The Joint List and Ra'am together are projected to win 17 to 18 seats, enough to make them potential kingmakers. Yet most opposition leaders have ruled out a formal partnership with them. Democrats chief Yair Golan is the notable exception, so the next few weeks of bargaining may turn on whether anyone is willing to rewrite those red lines.
The headline number of the day was turnout. The Central Elections Committee, which has tracked participation at fixed intervals since 1973, reported 74.3% by 8 pm, against 70.63% at the same hour in 2022. Participation was running ahead of the last election all day: 31.5% at midday, 55.7% at 4 pm and 66.7% at 6 pm, versus 57.7% at that hour in 2022. For anyone who tracks voter-engagement trends, that is a strong sign of civic energy even in a bitterly divided country.
The surge also squeezed the smaller parties on the right. The Jerusalem Post reported that Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's The Reservists-Economic were both projected to fall short of the 3.25% cut-off needed to enter parliament. Votes for parties below the line are effectively wasted, which narrows Netanyahu's route to a majority.
The campaign closed with sharp words. Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for 19 years, urged Likud supporters to vote immediately. He warned that strong mobilisation by Arab parties and rivals could bring a "leftist government", and he asked his base to avoid splinter right-wing lists. Eisenkot accused the prime minister of using "tricks, lies and intimidation" to drive turnout.
What to watch next: the final official count, which parties clear the threshold, and whether any camp can peel off partners to reach 61. Prolonged coalition talks can mean policy limbo, a point investors in any economy watch closely. For now, Israel's voters have turned out in record numbers and left the hard negotiating to their politicians. Source reporting: Republic World.
